Global air cargo demand rose 6% in May 2026 compared to the same month last year, according to data released Monday by the International Air Transport Association, a performance that holds up against expectations given the ongoing disruption from the conflict in the Middle East. International operations performed even better, growing 6.5%, while cargo capacity, measured in available tonne-kilometres, expanded a more modest 1.9% globally and 2.8% on international routes.
Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North America all reported above-trend growth in May. The Middle East was the exception, posting a combined contraction of 8.9% as war-related disruption continued to constrain aviation operations across the region. It was the only major region to record a decline.
IATA Director-General Willie Walsh framed the overall figures as evidence of the industry’s adaptive capacity, noting that strong demand elsewhere had effectively absorbed the Middle East’s contraction without dragging down the global total. He offered cautious optimism for the rest of the year, citing improving macroeconomic indicators, growing trade and manufacturing output, and airlines’ ability to realign operations with shifting demand patterns. Yield growth and higher load factors, he said, are helping carriers recoup elevated fuel costs even as Middle East uncertainty continues to weigh on parts of the industry.
The trade data underpinning the cargo growth is significant in its own right. Global trade expanded 5% year-on-year in May, extending a streak of 25 consecutive months of annual growth. That sustained trajectory has been one of the strongest drivers of air cargo demand, with manufacturers and logistics firms continuing to rely on air freight for high-value and time-sensitive shipments that ocean freight cannot accommodate on the same timeline.
Fuel costs remain the industry’s most persistent pressure point. Jet fuel prices fell 16.3% month-on-month in May, offering some operational relief, but remained 93.5% higher than a year earlier. That year-on-year gap is substantial enough that a single month of relief does little to change the underlying cost structure airlines are managing.
The manufacturing data adds nuance to the growth story. The Global Manufacturing Output PMI rose to 53.5 in May, indicating continued factory expansion. But the New Export Orders Index remained below the neutral 50-point threshold at 49.6, suggesting that May’s cargo growth was concentrated in specific trade corridors rather than reflecting a broad-based recovery in global export demand. The industry, in other words, is growing, but not uniformly, and not yet on the kind of foundation that would make the current momentum self-sustaining across every region and route.
