Nigeria’s petrol supply situation took a sharp turn in July as supplies from domestic refineries fell to their lowest level of the year, while imports continued to rise to cushion the shortfall.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, showed that average daily petrol supply from domestic refineries dropped by 20.6 per cent in July to 25.8 million litres, down from 32.5 million litres recorded in June.
The decline marked the second consecutive monthly fall in domestic petrol supply. Output had reached a seven-month high of 41.5 million litres per day in May before dropping to 32.5 million litres in June and falling further in July.
As domestic supplies weakened, imported petrol moved in the opposite direction. Imports increased by 8.8 per cent in July to 19.7 million litres per day from 18.1 million litres in June.
The rising imports, however, were not enough to prevent an overall decline in petrol supply.
Combined domestic and imported supply averaged 45.5 million litres per day in July, representing a 10.1 per cent decline from the 50.6 million litres recorded in June. It was the second consecutive monthly decline in total supply after the figure rose from 47.4 million litres in May to 50.6 million litres in June.
The changing supply mix is particularly notable. Domestic refineries accounted for about 56.7 per cent of total petrol supply in July, while imported products made up the remaining 43.3 per cent.
The figures represent a significant shift from earlier in the year, when domestic refineries were supplying a larger proportion of the country’s petrol needs.
In January, domestic supply averaged 40.1 million litres per day, while imports stood at 24.8 million litres. By July, domestic supply had fallen 37.1 per cent from its January level, while imports, despite their recent recovery, remained below January’s figure.
The pattern also highlights the volatility in Nigeria’s petrol supply during the year. Total supply fell sharply to 32.4 million litres per day in February before recovering steadily through May and June.
However, the recovery was not sustained. The latest NMDPRA figures show that the increase in imports has only partially offset the decline in domestic refinery supply.
July’s figures therefore point to a renewed reliance on imported petrol at a time when Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity is expected to play a greater role in meeting local demand.
While the NMDPRA data show a clear decline in domestic supply, they do not establish the specific reason for the July drop. The figures nonetheless underline the challenge of maintaining a stable petrol supply when domestic and imported sources are both subject to significant month-to-month fluctuations.
For consumers, the key concern is whether the decline in total supply will persist and what impact a continued shift towards imported petrol could have on the country’s downstream petroleum market.
